100k-Hand Variance Simulator

Ever wonder what your graph will look like over the next 100,000 hands you play?

Poker Variance Simulator

Poker Variance Simulator

Head over to the Tools section and check out the Variance Simulator (requires Excel).  Just enter your winrate and standard deviation and keep pressing F9.  It will automatically generate what your next 100,000 hands might look like.  You might be very surprised how much variance youre likely to experience, even over a pretty significant sample size.

With a 3PTBB/100 winrate and a standard deviation of 60, I got the following results over ten 100,000-hand samples:

1: +40 buyins
2: -20 buyins
3: +80 buyins
4: 0 buyins
5: +40 buyins
6: -5 buyins
7: +60 buyins
8: +85 buyins
9: +20 buyins
10: +40 buyins

How to Find Your Standard Deviation in Poker Tracker 3

Just open up PT3 and click on More Detail in the Session Notes tab.  As an alternative, refer to this 2+2 post.

How to Find Your Standard Deviation in Hold Em Manager

Open HEM then go to the Reports tab.  On the left, click on the + sign.  Add Standard Deviation in BB (not bb).  Click save, refresh, and youre done!

Note: I actually posted this on 2+2 a while a back but I forgot to post it here.  Whoops.  Also, Id like to give credit to the person that actually developed this spreadsheet but unfortunately, I have no idea who it is.