Archive for 'Variance'

Street-by-Street Poker EV Graphs with SECT

Posted on05. Nov, 2009 by Gugel.


Let’s say you have AA on the button with 100bb stacks. You misclick and accidentally raise to 99bb. Villain, a crazy billionaire railroad tycoon, has 27 offsuit and decides to call. The flop comes 222 and the pot is 198bb. Villain shoves his last 1bb and you obviously call.
HEM and PTR [...]

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Playing Good When You’re Running Bad

Posted on21. Jul, 2009 by Gugel.


Seth Godin had a great post on his blog today.  Even though he’s talking about marketing and customer service, his advice applies really well to poker.  Let’s say you have a bike race coming up and you obviously want to have the best time you possibly can.  The thing is,  everyone goes super fast on [...]

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Heads Up Poker Bankroll Management

Posted on24. Feb, 2009 by Gugel.


Heads up poker has a quite a bit more variance than 6max or fullring.  In other words, when you run hot, you’re really making bank, but you also get brutal downswings.  Take a look at my lifetime graph.
I’ve had 2 really major downswings.  In a little over 100,000 hands, I’ve had one downswing for 26 [...]

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Heaters and Downswings: Variance in Heads Up Poker

Posted on08. Jan, 2009 by Gugel.


There was an great post on variance on 2+2 about a week ago that included a link to an Excel spreadsheet. As you probably know, the upswings and downstreaks are a lot more extreme in heads up than 6-max and fullring. In fact, heads up is probably the most volatile form of poker. [...]

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